Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Gases' Mitigation in Iran Energy Sector Using System Dynamics Approach

摘要

The present study aims to shed new light in the energy supply planning in Iran by adopting a system dynamics (SD) model, so as to provide a quantitative assessment of each option of supply allocation policy, the long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions' trends of the country as a whole. This paper thus presents the projections of future GHG emissions' trend under various options of supply policies for a time span of 15 years. The GHG emissions are projected to reach 6,20,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (TCO_2e) by the year 2021 if the existing supply policy options are followed. 10 different scenarios considering the major variable of "economic sanctions" -which have recently affected Iran's economy- are developed. By running different scenarios, several fundamental dynamic behaviors can be seen explicitly. The results show that the more allocation of supply resources to the power plants will lessen the GHG emissions in the long run; however this option is quite sensitive to the economic sanctions, so that in case of more economic sanctions, it is not a good decision to be made. More gas injection into the oil reservoirs and less gas exports, is highly efficient in the short term, but its relative effectiveness in not substantial in the long run. Increasing the percentage of oil and gas allocated to the industrial sector, declines cumulative GHG in the long run. The GHG emissions from the power plants' scenario are less in comparison to those from the injection and industry scenarios in the modeling period. However, combined scenarios in the both level of the sanctions are the ideal.