Projecting temperature-related years of life lost under different climate change scenarios in one temperate megacity, China

摘要

AbstractTemperature has been associated with population health, but few studies have projected the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. To project future temperature-related disease burden in Tianjin, we selected years of life lost (YLL) as the dependent variable to explore YLL attributable to climate change. A generalized linear model (GLM) and distributed lag non-linear model were combined to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on the YLL of non-accidental mortality. Then, we calculated the YLL changes attributable to future climate scenarios in 2055 and 2090. The relationships of daily mean temperature with the YLL of non-accident mortality were basically U-shaped. Both the daily mean temperature increase on high-temperature days and its drop on low-temperature days caused an increase of YLL and non-accidental deaths. The temperature-related YLL will worsen if future climate change exceeds 2 °C. In addition, the adverse effects of extreme temperature on YLL occurred more quickly than that of the overall temperature. The impact of low temperature was greater than that of high temperature. Men were vulnerable to high temperature compared with women. This analysis highlights that the government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal.Graphical abstractDisplay OmittedHighlights•A more informative indicator (YLL) was used to assess temperature-related health effects.•The temperature-related years of life lost (YLL) will worsen if future climate change goes beyond 2 °C.•The effect of extreme temperature on YLL was more obvious than that of the overall temperature.•The government should formulate environmental policies to reach the Paris Agreement goal.The temperature-related years of life lost (YLL) will worsen if future climate change goes beyond 2 °C.