Risk assessment of drought disaster in summer maize cultivated areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, eastern China

摘要

Agricultural drought risk analysis is useful for reducing probable drought risk in the background of global warming. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal characteristics of drought and drought disaster risk in the summer maize growth period under climate change condition. In this research, we use daily datasets from 79 meteorological stations and the maize yield data in the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) plain, eastern China during the period 1960-2015. The drought disaster risk index (DDRI) model was applied to assess the drought disaster risk. The maize drought disaster risk maps were drawn under current and future climate change conditions. The results showed that the high DDRI was distributed in northern region and low DDRI was distributed in most of southern region in the HHH plain. During the summer maize growth period, the DDRI decreased gradually from the northern to southern region. The results also exhibited that under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, about one half of the HHH plain belonged to the slight and sub-slight DDRI region in the future 80 years. Overall, our results demonstrated that the DDRI model provided an accurate assessment in both spatial and temporal scales and had a theoretical guidance for improving the adaptation of crop production. Elevating maize drought risk management helps to lessen the anticipated risk to crop production in the HHH plain under the context of climate change.