GREY BOX AND COMPONENT MODELS TO FORECAST OZONE EPISODES: A COMPARISON STUDY

摘要

For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas(two continental and one Mediterranean)are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is Highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time Horizon of forecast.