Evaluation of streamflow predictions by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in two South African catchments

摘要

In many South African catchments, water is an increasingly limited and highly fluctuating resource. Accurate prediction of low flows is especially vital if water resource managers are to successfully balance the growing needs of agriculture, industry and rural and urban populations, while maintaining the ecological health of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Existing hydrological models in use in South Africa suffer from a number of disadvantages. They are complex, over-parameterised, data demanding and expensive to use. IHACRES, a lumped conceptual model requiring minimal input data, is less limited by these problems, and has the potential to advance our understanding of streamflow patterns and predict how these may be altered by land-use change. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate IHACRES performance for two South African catchments: Lambrechtsbos A (a 31 ha research catchment) and Groot-Nylrivier (74 km~2). IHACRES predicted streamflow at Lambrechtsbos A with useful accuracy (pre-afforestation period, R~2 > 0.81; bias <26 mm/yr; post-afforestation period, R~2 = 0.81, bias = 8.4 mm/yr). With prior knowledge of changes in annual evapotranspiration, predictions of land-use impacts on flow regime may be satisfactorily predicted. Simulations of flows in the Groot-Nylrivier catchment were found to be of useful accuracy for relatively short periods of 2-3 yr, but performance over longer time periods was reduced by poor predictions in certain years. We ascribe this primarily to poor catchment-average rainfall estimation following certain storms in some years. Our simulations highlighted a tendency for IHACRES to underestimate quick flow events, especially at times when the greater part of a catchment is dry. Further model development is required to overcome these problems. IHACRES shows great potential in linking proposed land-use change to altered flow regimes, and efficiently describing the flow characteristics within catchments. However, poor estimation of average rainfall in larger catchments is a limitation that needs to be overcome before long-term flow regimes of non-research catchments may be predicted with confidence.