An integrated modelling approach to assess the risk of wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected premises

摘要

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock that has serious consequences on livestock production and trade. In Australia, preparedness and planning includes the development of decision-support tools that would assist priority setting and resource management in the event of an incursion. In this paper we describe an integrated modelling approach using geographic information system (GIS) technology to assess the risk of wind-borne spread of FMD virus. The approach involves linking an intra-farm virus production model, a wind transport and dispersal model, and an exposure-risk model to identify and rank farms at risk of wind-borne infection of FMD. This will assist authorities by enabling resources for activities like surveillance and vaccination to be allocated on the basis of risk.