Effects of Endogenous Factors on Regional Land-Use Carbon Emissions Based on the Grossman Decomposition Model: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

摘要

The impact of land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions has become a core issue in current studies on global change and carbon cycle. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of land-use changes on carbon emissions is very necessary. This paper attempted to apply the Grossman decomposition model to estimate the scale, structural, and management effects of land-use carbon emissions based on final energy consumption by establishing the relationship between the types of land use and carbon emissions in energy consumption. It was shown that land-use carbon emissions increase from 169.5624 million tons in 2000 to 637.0984 million tons in 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 14.15 %. Meanwhile, land-use carbon intensity increased from 17.59 t/ha in 2000 to 64.42 t/ha in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 13.86 %. The results indicated that rapid industrialization and urbanization in Zhejiang Province promptly increased urban land and industrial land, which consequently affected land-use extensive emissions. The structural and management effects did not mitigate land-use carbon emissions. By contrast, both factors evidently affected the growth of carbon emissions because of the rigid demands of energy-intensive land-use types and the absence of land management. Results called for the policy implications of optimizing land-use structures and strengthening land-use management.