A methodology for dealing with regional change in integrated water resources management

摘要

The paper presents a methodology on how to consistently deal with the future change and management options in integrated water resources management (IWRM). It is based on a conceptual framework with a five step procedure for the formulation and analysis of a so-called 'parameterised regional futures'. Developing and testing the approach for IWRM is realised for the upper part of the Western Bug River catchment (Ukraine). Special attention is paid to scenarios of change covering climate and land use. The future regional climate is downscaled with the model CCLM. Land cover is projected after retrospective change detection and the derivation of prospective algorithms. Parameters of the interrelations between land use and the water cycle are tackled through using the concept of the model PWF-LU. The methodology is currently being tested to analyse the impacts of mid-term regional change and management options on the water cycle of the catchment.