Glaciers of the Orulgan Range: assessment of the current state and possible development for the middle of the 21st century

摘要

An assessment of the current state of Orulgan Range (part of Verkhoyansky Range, the NE Siberia) glaciers is proposed. It was conducted involving ASTER images for the summer 2010 and the corresponding DEM. We have identified 70 % of the glaciers, outlined in the Inventory of glaciers of the USSR, Part. 2. Orulgan range. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat 17(5): 67, (1972). The mean relative degree of the area reduction for Orulgan glaciers is about 60 % from that time up to 2010. Using ASTER GDEM, the equilibrium line altitudes were defined for contemporary glacier systems of the Orulgan. We used climatic scenario for the period 2049-2060, which is an addition to the global temperature of 1.5 degrees (the array developed by Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, RAS) and corresponding to this increase precipitation-the array of Voeikov Observatory, Sankt-Peterburg, identified by 31 AOGCMs (involved in the CMIP5 project), in particular, RCP4.5 to project the glacier development to 2049-2060. The previously developed technique used the outputs for assessing the evolution of the Orulgan glacier systems. Results showed that under the scenario combination of precipitation, feeding glaciers, and summer temperatures, the Orulgan glaciation actually would disappear. These results are compared with the earlier projection made involving the ECHAM 4 as a climate scenario (Ananicheva et al., Cryosphere 4: 435-445, 2010).