From Suburbanization to Counterurbanization? Investigating Urban Dynamics in the National Capital Region Delhi, India

摘要

大多数亚洲大都市区都在如何控制空间增长，以及制定对未来发展产生积极影响的政策方面做出努力。以德里国家首都区（National Capital Region, NCR)为例，作者考察了管理区域城市增长的政策指引在将近二十年的时间里是如何实施的，它对形成今天的城市蔓延做出了贡献。用Klaassen-van den Berg提出的城市增长模型作为一个周期，作者确定了德里国家首都区的城市发展阶段，并试图预测它的未来阶段，为规划师们提供一个重温既有政策的平台从而有效地管理城市增长。文章提出德里国家首都区从1981年开始就进入了明显的郊区化阶段，城市在过去几十年中蔓延，由于普遍存在的基础设施和制度能力不足，它很有可能跳过逆城市化阶段，直接进入再城市化阶段。%Despite the long tradition of planning to manage urban growth in the National Capital Region (NCR) Delhi, the region is often criticized by the scholars for facing severe urban problems caused not only by an increasing population but also by a lack of infrastructure provision coupled with outward spatial expansion. Identification of urban development stages provides policy makers with a tool to devise reforms in order to effectively and efficiently manage urban growth. In this article, taking NCR-Delhi as a case study using the urban growth model conceptualized by Klaassen-van den Berg as a cycle, we not only identify its urban development stage but also attempt to predict its future stage, in order to provide planners a platform to revisit the formulated policies to manage urban growth effectively. The investigations identified that NCR-Delhi has been in absolute suburbanization since 1981 and had sprawled over the decades. In the prevalent deficient infrastructure environment and institutional capacity it is most likely to skip counterurbanization and go directly to reurbanization.