RESOURCE POTENTIALS AND LIMITATIONS OF A NICARAGUAN AGRICULTURAL REGION

摘要

Food production has to be increased in a sustainable way to meet the future global demand. A key position is attributed to developing countries. A deepened understanding of their agricultural regions with specific resource endowments and constraints is therefore crucial. In this study we propose a methodology based on material flux analysis (MFA) to assess the resource potentials and limitations of a Nicaraguan agricultural region. We focus on current regional and farm resource management and explore them under two scenarios. Indicators are nitrogen and the degrees of self-sufficiency (DSS) for energy, and the staples maize and beans. As data is scarce, most information is based on interviews with farmers of four categories and key persons, and on literature. The results show that nitrogen management does not differ considerably among categories. Nitrogen is mined mostly from staple plots. Self-sufficiency for beans is given in an average year. Yet, landless and small farmers neither produce enough maize for autoconsumption, nor are they self-sufficient for firewood. Energy supply is also the core problem of the region, since the DSS is 70%. Soil nitrogen stocks last at most for three more generations. Analyses with the scenario technique show that: (a) Unlimited population growth has serious consequences in the near future e.g. severe shortage of energy and food, (b) Alternative farming systems are possible, but they require reducing the population by a factor 2, and thus the creation of jobs in a Hinterland.