Ensasine The Future: Forecasts, Scenarios, Plans, And Projects

摘要

When I started reading Engaging the Future, I realized that my teaching of different types of scenarios has always been based on Dutch literature. The dominant view in this book is that forecasts are concerned with the most likely future because of our limited and not necessarily perfect understanding of reality-a reality based on some kind of model capturing the key mechanisms causing urban dynamics. Forecasts are based on a set of methodological criteria, especially those related to the validity of the underlying assumptions and the general acceptance of the (state-of-the-art) model used for forecasting.