A STUDY OF CORRELATION ASPECTS IN PROBABILISTIC NPV ANALYSIS

摘要

In probabilistic net present value (NPV) analysis, expressed in terms of benefits and costs, the expected value and variance of the net present value are determined from the expected values and variances of the benefits and costs and correlations between benefits and costs. This article outlines an empirical study and an examination of the correlation between benefits and costs. Intercomponent and intertemporal correlations are estimated. In addition, the article determines the upper and lower bounds of the variance of the net present value, when the exact intertemporal and intercomponent correlations are not known.