Modelling and predicting electricity consumption in Spain using the stochastic Gamma diffusion process with exogenous factors

摘要

The aim of this study is to model electric power consumption during a period of economic crisis, characterised by declining gross domestic product. A novel aspect of this study is its use of a Gamma type diffusion process for short and medium-term forecasting - other techniques that have been used to describe such consumption patterns are not valid in this situation.