Energy transition roadmap towards 100% renewable energy and role of storage technologies for Pakistan by 2050

摘要

The main aim of this study is to present an energy transition roadmap for Pakistan in which the total energy demand by 2050 is met by electricity generated via renewable sources, in particular, solar photovoltaic. Efforts have been made to assess the energy and cost required for the transition towards a sustainable energy supply covering the demand for power, desalination and industrial gas sectors. Hourly resolved model was used and optimization was carried out for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) on the basis of assumed costs and technological status till 2050 for all energy technologies involved. Solar PV dominates the installed technologies and contributes 92.7% and 96.6% in power and integrated scenarios. Seawater desalination sector dominates the integrated scenario and clean water demand is found to be 2.8.10(11) m(3) by 2050. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 106.6 epsilon/MWh in 2015 to 46.2 epsilon/MWh in 2050 in power scenario. In country-wide scenario, gas storage rules from 2040 to 2050 in terms of total storage capacities while battery storage is prominent in terms of storage output. The results indicates that, 100% renewable system is cost competitive and least cost option for Pakistan's future energy transition. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.