Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications

摘要

Electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as one of the solutions for the problems facing the transportation sector including pollution problems, climate change, dimensioning of fossil fuel, and energy security. However, EVs rely on materials identified critical due to risks associated with their supply and environmental impacts. This paper aims at analyzing EVs in China, their requirement for 16 materials, and their national and global implications. The analysis is carried out using multi-level dynamic MFA model and 9 scenarios investigating EVs and batteries market share, their materials content and lifetime, and materials recycling. EVs materials impacts on coproduced materials, and energy, water, and CO_2 emissions associated with materials production are discussed. Global metals availability is not expected to constraint EVs development in China, while several metals availability in China is expected to limit their growth. Significant increase in most metals production capacity is required. Extending EVs lifetime and using more than one battery reduce risks associated with REEs and increase those associated with other metals. Metals stock in use is expected to be significant compared to current Chinese reserves. EVs development in China has significant implications on resources availability, mainly REEs and graphite, for other world regions and other sectors.