Application of a fuzzy cognitive map based on a structural equation model for the identification of limitations to the development of wind power

摘要

Despite numerous researchers having investigating the development of wind power, the correlation between the elements influencing wind power development has often been ignored. Hence, this research hopes to incorporate both structural equation model (SEM) and fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to identify a mutual relationship between the various elements, so as to provide feasible recommendations for management strategies. Initially, SEM is used for identification of correlation between the elements and indicating their direction and strength. A standardized causal coefficient from SEM was then used to create an FCM illustrating the effect of the status of one component on the status of another component The research results pointed out that "policy" would be the major challenge faced by wind power development, as well as the main cause for other obstructions. Therefore, under the objective of maximizing economic benefits, short-term strategies can adopt suitable measures for the two dimensions of "technology" and "environment"; and while mid-term strategies must consider the indirect influences from "social" dimension, long-term strategies must work on "policy".