Is Russia building too many pipelines? Explaining Russia's oil and gas export strategy

摘要

The article examines Russia's entire oil and gas export network and reveals that there is a considerable surplus pipeline capacity, which is likely to endure in the future. It brings to attention surplus capacity as a concept that could enrich discussions on what drivers Russia's energy policy abroad and how Moscow enhances its energy security. The article provides three explanations on Russia's surplus capacity for oil and gas exports. First, Russia's institutional setting has been conducive for a surge in new pipelines, as economic considerations have played a less significant role. Second, Russia's energy "pivot to Asia" has already contributed to a widening surplus capacity in westbound oil pipelines, and it is likely to have a similar impact on gas once it starts flowing to China. Third, Russia's energy security concerns, namely about minimising transit risks, have played a key role in its active pipeline diplomacy and new pipeline ventures. The implications of Russia's surplus capacity can be significant. For oil, the room for manoeuvring is wide enough to allow Russia abandon an entire route of its choice. For gas, Moscow is likely to enhance its bargaining position with Ukraine, while Gazprom acquires more flexibility to deliver gas abroad.