The asymmetric relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices in Vietnam: Some behavioural implications for energy policy-making

摘要

With rapidly expanding real GDP in Vietnam, it is anticipated that the Vietnamese energy production will increase to meet its rising energy consumption. An important corollary is that pollution will also rise since the energy sector is considered a big polluter in the developing world. This paper brings two important insights to this literature: first and foremost, this paper seeks to establish if any behavioural biases of policy makers have clouded the decision to adopt suitable energy technologies and policies in Vietnam with far-reaching consequences for sustainability in the region. Secondly, in order to detect behavioural biases, it considers the asymmetric effects of increases vis-a-vis decreases in regressors by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) models, to examine how such increases or decreases really impact on pollution in Vietnam. Using annual data from 1982 to 2015, the analysis finds that the long-run relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices have been characterised by non-linear and asymmetric interlinkages to indicate hidden cointegration. We further argue that such hidden cointegration can signal important behavioural biases in (energy) policy-making.