Modelling dynamic impacts of urbanization on disaggregated energy consumption in China: A spatial Durbin modelling and decomposition approach

摘要

Rapid urbanization consumes a variety of energy increasingly. The impacts of urbanization on energy consumption in the past decades have not been investigated by sectors in the literature. Using the time series energy and urbanization related data 1997-2016, this study aims to investigate the impacts of urbanization and its interaction with six energy demand sectors on (disaggregated) energy consumption at provincial level in China by integrating the spatial panel data modelling and interaction effects modelling methods. The positive spatial autocorrelation of various energy consumptions justifies the rationale of developing spatial Durbin models. All the diversified direct, indirect and total effects from differently specified models suggest regional and sectoral specific policy to control energy, coal and electricity consumption in the process of urbanization.