Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production

摘要

Multicyclic Hubbert analysis of resource production, especially as it relates to forecasting future petroleum production, has received significant traction in scientific and public circles. Although in some cases this technique can be a valuable tool for understanding resource production, its usefulness as a predictor has at times been overstated. The effects of modeling parameters, such as the number of Hubbert cycles applied, can significantly limit the validity of the results obtained. Examples of multicyclic Hubbert analyses show that while this approach can be useful in certain circumstances, there are a number of implicit assumptions underlying the method that need to be understood when assessing the validity of forecasts derived from this approach.