Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999

摘要

This paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and GDP in Shanghai for the period 1952-1999 using a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225). The empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni-directional Granger causality running from coal, coke, electricity and total energy consumption to real GDP but no Granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real GDP.