A multi-stage stochastic optimization model for energy systems planning and risk management

摘要

Strategic decision making at the building level is gaining importance in the context of a more and more deregulated energy market. The increase of the set of available options regarding distributed and renewable energy technologies leads to a complex decision process. Importantly, such decision making process is affected by uncertainties and therefore stochastic models are needed. In this paper, a comprehensive deterministic strategic optimization model for energy systems planning at the building level is extended to a stochastic optimization framework, thereby allowing the decision maker to manage risks in addition to considering the variability of the uncertain parameters. A numerical example shows the importance of taking into account uncertainty and risk in this kind of problems. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.