IHS Markit Believes Inflationary Pressures May be Temporary in U.S. & Around the Globe

摘要

In this analysis of inflation trends in both the global and U.S. economies, Nariman Behravesh, senior economic advisor, IHS Markit, lays out a case that concerns over inflation are overblown as rises will prove temporary in most parts of the world. He believes the inflation outlook is dependent on labor force participation and a gap in output. His analysis is provided exclusively to paying subscribers of Electrical Marketing. In many parts of the world, demand is growing faster than supply as vaccination rollouts continue and restrictions on gathering and travel are lifted. This is especially true in North America and some emerging regions such as Central Europe and Eastern Europe. In these economies, the pace of price increases has accelerated, leading to heightened concerns about inflation. Mainland China is the one major exception, where robust growth has been supply-led. Thus, despite a strong post-COVID-19 rebound in the Chinese economy, inflationary pressures are muted.