Hybrid wind-diesel stand-alone system sizing accounting for component expected life and fuel price uncertainty

摘要

Hybrid wind-diesel stand alone system sizing is considered. The starting point is constituted by a deterministic model able to minimize long-term total costs of the system, accounting also for design parameters affecting expected lives of relevant components. Then, due to the sensitiveness of the solution of the problem to the uncertainty of fuel price time trend, probabilistic techno-economical analyses are developed. Starting from a probabilistic characterization of possible fuel price scenarios, the expected values of economical figures such as Pay Back Period and Regret are introduced by means of suitable models; such figures allow characterizing each solution in a more comprehensive way in order to take final choices. Finally, a case-study system is analyzed.