Probabilistic modeling of electric vehicle charging pattern in a residential distribution network

摘要

It has been recognized that an increased penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) may potentially alter load profile in a distribution network. Charging pattern of EVs and its corresponding electrical load pattern may be assessed and quantified by using either a deterministic method or stochastic approach. However, deterministic method does not account for stochastic nature of EV users which affects the load pattern and of stochastic nature of grid condition. Thus, a stochastic method is applied to develop a probabilistic model of EVs charging pattern that takes into account various factors such as vehicle class, battery capacity, state of charge (SOC), driving habiteed, i.e. involving trip type and purpose, plug-in time, mileage, recharging frequency per day, charging power rate and dynamic EV charging price under controlled and uncontrolled charging schemes. The probabilistic model gives EV charging pattern over a period of day for different months to represent the load pattern during different seasons of a year. The presented model gives a rigorous estimation of EV charging load pattern in a distribution network which is considered important for network operators. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.