Drawing on a variety of different assumptions, America's Congressional Budget Office (cbo) has produced a range of projections for the economy's budget surplus—the excess of taxes over public spending—over the next ten years. Even the least optimistic of these forecasts expects a ten-year cumulative "on-budget" surplus of more than $800 billion. (The administration, using slightly different assumptions, expects a ten-year surplus of roughly $750 billion.) However you look at it, this is a lot of money. Will it really materialise? The short answer is no.
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