The long shadow of Big Blue

摘要

When the American government dropped its antitrust case against IBM in 1982, after 13 years of litigation, most observers―including this newspaper―thought the computer giant was unstoppable. "IBM may succeed in almost any application of computing it chooses to enter, as it has already demonstrated in word processors and satellite communications," we declared. But soon Big Blue's core business, mainframe computers, was under attack from more nimble competitors selling cheap PCS. A decade later, IBM almost ran out of cash, before successfully refocusing on software and services. Nobody is suggesting that Microsoft, having emerged essentially unscathed from its five-year antitrust lawsuit after a federal court's final judgment on November 1st, will now go through a similar near-death experience. On the contrary, its Windows monopoly seems more entrenched than ever, sparing the firm much of the pain of the technology recession. In the past quarter it exceeded its own earnings expectations, mainly thanks to new licensing schemes which raise prices for many customers. Yet, like Big Blue at the end of its battle, the software giant may prove less victorious than it now appears.