Revolution delayed

摘要

It took less than a year for the felling of the twin towers to transform the political geography of Central Asia. But it was not, of course, the people or the grievances of Central Asia that lay behind the attacks on America. All the suicide attackers were Arabs. Fifteen of the 19 were Saudi Arabians, like Osama bin Laden himself. In the year ahead, the biggest consequences of the attacks on America are likely to be felt in the Arab world. Mr bin Laden (if he is still alive) might welcome that. Possibly, he intended all along to draw America into an Islamic civil war. His aim, in the view of Michael Scott Doran, professor of near-eastern studies at Princeton University, was to provoke an international military crackdown, which he and his followers could exploit for their particular brand of revolution. "The script", says Mr Scott Doran, "was obvious: America, cast as the villain, was supposed to use its military might like a cartoon character trying to kill a fly with a shotgun." Muslims everywhere would be shocked by how nonchalantly America caused their brothers in the faith to suffer and die. That would open a chasm between state and society in the Middle East. Governments allied with the West, many of them repressive and corrupt, would drown in a sea of hostile opinion.