Now should be the time, with America's economy emerging from what seemed a relatively mild recession, for stockmarkets to roar ahead again. When equity prices fell in the weeks after last September nth, no one could have been shocked. Nine months on, however, amid upbeat economic data, punters still hope the band will strike up again. Instead, share prices continue to slip. In rich countries they are back near their post-attack lows. America's Treasury secretary, Paul O'Neill, who among his many duties presumes to know the appropriate level of share prices, says he finds the falls "inexplicable". Yet explanations abound. But first, consider the expectations of investors in America, who over the past 20 years have become accustomed to high, sometimes double-digit, returns from shares. Many, indeed, have come to expect a summer rally like the one that launched America's long bull run back in August, 1982. Today, with share prices broadly where they were in late 1999, the bullmar-ket wisdom of always buying "on the dips" might seem to apply. Yet this sum-mer―and possibly for some seasons to come―that wisdom may not be borne out.
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