From his compound overlooking Arbil, Massoud Barzani, leader of the stronger of the two Kurdish factions running northern Iraq, feels the weight of an approaching, and crucial, decision. He and his archrival, Jalal Talabani, who controls the eastern part of the Kurdish enclave, had just returned from meeting American officials in Germany to discuss the Kurds' possible contribution to an Iraqi "regime-changing" operation. Mr Barzani is determined not to take his people into anything "that fails to guarantee their security and their rights as equal citizens in a federal, democratic Iraq." With some 50,000 men under arms and controlling an area roughly the size of Switzerland, the Iraqi Kurds are the strongest opposition group inside Iraq. But, unlike the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, they lack sophisticated weaponry and they are encircled by unremittingly hostile neighbours. With Iraqi tanks parked just ten kilometres outside Arbil, it is easy to understand why Mr Barzani and many of Iraq's 3.6m Kurds are jittery.
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