Ten Senate seats, hanging on the wall

摘要

This week marks the formal start of elephant- and donkey-hunting season, otherwise known as an election year. On January 23rd, Congress reconvened with its usual stack of unfinished business. On January 29th, George Bush's state-of-the-union speech will outline the issues facing his administration (the unspoken one being: how can we defeat Democrats at the election?). His proposed budget for next year appears a week later. And the hunting season builds up to November 5th, with a grand shoot-out which could change control of the Senate, the House of Representatives and 36 governorships. Sometimes it is possible to discern national trends in mid-term elections that benefit one party―normally the one that does not hold the White House. With the economy weak and the Congressional Budget Office confirming this week that the federal budget will be in the red this year and next, you might expect history to repeat itself in 2002. Yet if you survey the agenda in Congress, it is hard to find any pattern of partisan advantage.