Economic analysis in Argentina today is a bruisingly ideological matter, conditioned by disagreements over the causes of the collapse. Some see the current recovery as ephemeral, resulting largely from the soya boom. They accuse the government of abandoning the reform agenda of the 1990s and failing to repair the numerous breaches of contract caused by the devaluation. Mr Kirchner "hasn't confronted any of the problems. We devalued to save the same fiscal and labour-market institutions that led us to crisis," says Ricardo Lopez Murphy, an orthodox liberal who came third in last year's presidential election. Others see Convertibility as a costly straitjacket that the country did well to wriggle out of. The economy has recovered "because, finally, after ten years, producing tradable goods is profitable again," and because "macroeconomic policy is the most orthodox in 50 years," says Javier Gonzalez Fraga, a former central-bank governor. Certainly the main aggregates look healthy enough. Inflation is running at 3-4%; interest rates are low; and thanks partly to windfall taxes on exports, the public finances showed an unprecedented primary surplus (ie, before debt payments) of 3.4% of GDP in the 12 months to March.
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