A derailment coming

摘要

On their side of the divided capital of Cyprus, young Turkish-Cypriots wearing T-shirts stamped with Evet (the Turkish for yes) are campaigning noisily in favour of reunifying the island. Hundreds of blue and yellow balloons-the European Union colours-are floated at their rallies, in anticipation of the benefits of membership, which include some EUD350m ($418m) in aid which may eventually be doled out to northern Cyprus. Opinion polls suggest that in a referendum to be held throughout the island on April 24th, some 60% of Turkish-Cypriots will back a UN plan to put the island together again-even though it will oblige them to yield control over some rich farmland, and to send most of the Turkish soldiers now on the island back home. But in some ways, it hardly matters what the Turkish-Cypriots think. All signs are that the Greek-Cypriots will reject the UN plan, and therefore exercise their right to join the EU alone.