Arecent spate of particularly lethal suicide bombs-on July 16th one blew up a petrol tanker near a mosque in the mainly Shia town of Musayib, south of Baghdad, killing at least 90 civilians-makes things look even worse than they are. Not that they are rosy. But there is no sign yet of an impending "tipping point"-either in favour of the insurgents, who seek a return to Sunni Arab dominance through a sectarian war leading to the ignominious departure of the American-led forces, or in favour of the western allies, who want to split the insurgency, beef up the new Iraqi army and police so that they can take over the main burden of security, hold another set of elections under a new federal constitution, and then beat a digni-fied retreat within the next few years or so.
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