Apres mai, le deluge?

摘要

It was once a nightmare scenario; now it is becoming a working hypothesis. Every one of the 20-odd polls since mid-March suggests the French are set to reject the draft European constitution at their referendum on May 29th, with the "no" vote mobilising 51-58%. The question is increasingly not whether France will say no, but what will happen if it does. The result of the French vote is not a foregone conclusion. One poll this week, by Ipsos for Le Figaro, put the "no" vote at 52%, against 48% for a "yes"-a highly uncertain margin. When asked, in the same poll, not how they would vote but what result they would like to see, 38% hoped for a "no", next to 37% for a "yes": an even finer balance. Moreover, France has plunged itself into a real debate. Political discussions rage constantly on television and the radio; constitutional texts have become unlikely items on the bestseller list.