Rarely have Wall Street's seers been so split. Not only are they divided about where the economy is headed, they even disagree about how it is faring today. Pessimists, such as Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, reckon output is slowing from its already desultory pace of 1.6% a year in the third quarter and that recession is imminent. Optimists say GDP growth is rising after a weak summer. After analysing bond, equity and credit markets, Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley recently argued that the risk of recession was only 13%, down from 19% a month before.
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机译：华尔街的先知很少如此分裂。他们不仅在经济发展方向上存在分歧，甚至对今天的经济状况也持不同意见。悲观主义者，如Roubini Global Economics的Nouriel Roubini，认为第三季度的产出已经从其本已令人沮丧的1.6％的速度放缓，并且衰退即将到来。乐观人士说，在疲软的夏季之后，GDP增长正在上升。在分析了债券，股票和信贷市场之后，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的斯蒂芬•詹（Stephen Jen）最近辩称，衰退的风险仅为13％，低于一个月前的19％。
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