Economics Focus: The Global Slumpometer

摘要

Many economists are now predicting the worst global recession since the 1930s. Such grim warnings discourage spending by households and businesses, depressing output even more. It is unfortunate, therefore, that there is so much confusion about what pundits mean when they talk about a "global recession".rnAmerica, Britain, the euro area and Japan are almost certainly already in recession according to the popular rule of thumb of two successive quarters of falling gdp. But is the R-word really justified for the world as a whole? In its World Economic Outlook, published in early October, the imf predicted that world gdp growth would fall to 3% in 2009, based on purchasing-power parity (ppp) weights, from 5% in 2007 and 3-9% in 2008. In the past, the imf has said that global growth of less than 3% implied a world recession, so its latest forecasts would put the world teetering on the brink. More recent forecasts by private-sector firms have pushed it over the edge, with several now predicting global gdp growth of no more than 1.5% in 2009.