My money or your life

摘要

Over the past 50 years, every forecast of how long people will live has fallen short. Despite fears that obesity and global warming would reverse the trend, life expectancy in rich countries has grown steadily, by about 2.5 years a decade, or 15 minutes every hour (see chart on the next page). That is good news for health-care providers, cruise companies and (on the whole) humanity. It is most unwelcome for those paying the bills to finance this extended lease on life. Longevity risk, the chance that people will live longer than expected, is potentially very expensive. Never mind the dramatic impact of a cure for cancer: adding an extra year to the average lifespan increases the world's pension bill by 4%, or around $1 trillion, according to the IMF.