Crystal balls

摘要

Compared with the disasters of previous years, 2013 was great. The British economy picked up, racing to a 3.6% annu-alised growth rate in the third quarter. A strong Christmas could mean the fourth is just as good. All 38 forecasters recently surveyed by the Treasury thought that 2014 will be better than 2013. Strangely, though, agreement ends there. Of those surveyed Citi, a bank, was most optimistic: it predicted British gdp will rise by 3.2% in 2014. niesr, a think-tank, is towards the bottom of the scale, betting on 2% growth. This seemingly slim difference is profound. Stripping away temporary ups and downs, Britain's economy could be expected to expand by about 2% a year as the labour force grows and people in work get better at doing things.