Anticipated stochastic choice

摘要

The purpose of this study is to characterize stochastic choice influenced by the objective or subjective positions of alternatives in a menu. The main theorem axiomatizes the anticipated stochastic choice (ASC) representation, wherein the decision maker maximizes the expected utility by the cognitive control of a probability measure over mental states that trigger the ex post choice of alternatives. A key prerequisite for this axiomatization is that the randomization between menus is identified with their perfectly correlated mixture, which includes only mixtures of specific alternative pairs. The essential uniqueness of an ASC representation defines an index of rationality that is relevant to a preference for commitment. Special cases of ASC include exact utility maximization, uncontrolled stochastic choice, trembling hands, and choice with limited attention. Furthermore, ASC accommodates potentially stochastic choice anomalies such as the attraction effect, cyclical choice, and position effects.