Fiscal Policy

摘要

1. Recent public finances data have been a mixed bag. On one hand the poor growth performance has prevented the government making significant progress against last year's borrowing figures but, on the other hand, significant downward revisions to the historical data have made the starting point slightly more favourable than before. 2. The historical revisions have been substantial; at the time of the March Budget, with one month of fiscal year 2010/11 to go, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated that PSNBX (Public Sector Net Borrowing excluding financial interventions) would be £145.9bn, yet the latest figures put it at £136.7bn. However, over the first five months of 2011/12, borrowing is running only around £4bn lower than a year earlier and, even taking into account the lower starting point, this suggests that the Government is lagging behind where it should be if it is to achieve the OBR's full year target of £122bn.