The labour market displayed a remarkable degree of resilience during the recession and the early part of the recovery, but recent data has suggested that this has begun to peter out. We expect this trend to continue during 2011, with private sector hiring likely to remain subdued while firms try to regain some of the substantial loss of productivity endured during the recession. With the public sector likely to shed jobs at an increasing rate, we expect this to cause unemployment to nudge upwards to 2.6 million, or 8.2%, on the ILO measure by the end of this year.
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