The Economic Outlook for London

摘要

1.Incorporating new and revised data, our estimate of London's output growth in 2011 has been adjusted upwards to 1.9% - a creditable performance given the slow growth of the UK economy and London's exposure to financial services. This performance was driven by the construction, information & communications and accommodation & food services sectors. London's overall performance is expected to worsen slightly in 2012, with financial services forecast to show hardly any growth. However, a pickup in global growth, plus stronger consumer spending and business investment, should underpin an acceleration in London GDP growth in 2013, with output set to accelerate further over 2014-15. 2.Employment growth for 2011 has also been revised upwards and is now estimated to have been 2.3%. The short-term outlook is weaker, with job losses expected in all public service sectors and the private sector struggling to create jobs in the face of weak demand. Over the longer term, as the recovery gains momentum, employment is forecast to return to its pre-recession growth rates of around 2% a year. 3.London's residential property market has been largely supported by demand from wealthy foreign buyers in recent years. The recent Budget measures will hit the top end of the market but stronger real incomes should lead to further modest increases in prices in 2012. Commercial property take-up was much weaker in 2011 than 2010, but financial and business services employment is forecast to gradually recover, boosting demand for floorspace.