Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone

摘要

In this paper, we revisit the link between currency misalignments and economic growth by taking into account foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics for the CFA zone countries over the period 1985-2011. Relying on a BEER approach and using panel cointegration techniques, we first derive currency misalignments. We then estimate a panel smooth transition growth equation that allows currency misalignment to exert nonlinear impacts on both economic growth and foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics. We find that the nonlinear impact of currency misalignments on growth through the competitiveness channel is mitigated by the foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics through a valuation effect.