Evaluation of global warming impacts on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in monsoon Asia: a multi-model analysis

摘要

This study assesses the potential impacts of future global warming on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems across monsoon Asia using the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) dataset. We used simulation results of two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), climate projections of five climate models, and seven terrestrial biome models to analyze the changes in net primary production and carbon stocks in the South, Southeast, and East Asian subregions during the period 1981-2099. The simulations indicated that by the end of the 21st century, net primary production would increase by 9-45 % and ecosystem carbon storage would increase by 42-86 Pg C. The clearest climatic impacts were found when using the adaptation-oriented emission scenario (RCP8.5), which assumes a greater CO2 increase and a larger change in climatic conditions. Substantial disparities in temporal trajectories and spatial patterns were found in the estimated changes, owing to the uncertainties in the emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem models. We attempted to derive consistent patterns throughout the simulations to specify potential hotspots of climatic impacts (e.g., soil carbon change in the southern Tibetan Plateau). Finally, we discuss changes to the climatic characteristics in the study region (e.g., a change in the rainy season), the implications for ecosystem services, and the need for collaborative field monitoring studies.