Spatiotemporal differences in forest ecological security warning values in Beijing: Using an integrated evaluation index system and system dynamics model

摘要

In this study, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal pattern and the dynamic evolution of a warning index for forest ecological security (the forest ecological security early warning index (FESEWI)). This was undertaken in order to provide a theoretical reference for decision making in relation to forest ecological security in Beijing, China. By analyzing spatiotemporal differences in the FESEWI values between 2009 and 2015 using system dynamics (SD) model, a prediction of the evolutionary trend for the ecological security of the forest from 2015 to 2030 was made. The results indicate that the overall forestry ecological security will continue the improvement that began in 2009 through to 2030. Whilst the warning index decreased slightly between 2009 and 2015, we predict that it will increase between 2016 and 2030. Regional differences were seen in the change characteristics of FESEWI values over time within the period studied. Spatially, the early warning index demonstrated an upward trend from the Functional Expansion Zone to New Urban Development Zone followed by Ecological Conservation Zone, and the low index range increasingly expanded with urbanization. The spatiotemporal evolution features of forest ecological security in Beijing were significantly affected by many factors, including forestry resources, socioeconomic activities, natural environment, and forestry policy, which resulted in periodicity and regional differences in the evolution of forest ecological security values.