Are International Monetary Fund Programs Effective?

摘要

We extend the literature on the effectiveness of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs in two directions. First, we undertake a sensitivity analysis by applying several assessment methods commonly used in the literature to a common data set to check the robustness of inferences regarding the effectiveness of IMF-related programs. Second, we employ a new set of countries that are largely ignored in the literature-namely, those of Eastern Europe. The findings show that the inferences regarding the effectiveness of IMF programs obtained under different approaches seem robust: IMF programs in East European countries appear to be ineffective. However, it may be simplistic to blame solely the IMF for ineffective programs, as effectiveness may be determined by many factors, including the nature of the programs, the commitment of the corresponding country's officials, policy changes, and external shocks.