Multi-model multi-analysis ensemble weather forecasting on the grid for the South Eastern Mediterranean Region

摘要

Weather forecasting is based on the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that are able to perform the necessary calculations that describe/predict the major atmospheric processes. One common problem in weather forecasting derives from the uncertainty related to the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere. A solution to that problem is to perform in addition to “deterministic” forecasts, “stochastic” forecasts that provide an estimate of the prediction skill. A computationally feasible approach towards this aim is to perform “ensemble forecasts”. Indeed, in the frame of SEE-GRID-SCI EU funded project a Regional scale Multi-model, Multi-analysis ensemble forecasting system (REFS) was built and ported on the Grid infrastructure. REFS is based on the use of four limited area models (namely BOLAM, MM5, ETA, and NMM) that are run using a multitude of initial and boundary conditions over the Mediterranean. This paper presents the tools and procedures followed for developing this application at a production level.