Time Series Behavior of the Volume of Wood Products Export in Ghana

摘要

This study examines the patterns in the export of wood products in Ghana from 1997-2013. We also build a time series model to forecast the volume of wood products export over the same period. The study employs the Box-Jenkins methodology of building ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model.? Monthly time series data on exports of wood products from 1997-2013 were extracted from monthly and annual reports on export of wood products published by the Timber Industry Development Division (TIDD) of the Forestry Commission of Ghana. Different selected models were tested to ensure the accuracy of obtained results and ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)_{12} was adjudged the best model.? This model was then used to forecast the volume of wood products export for 2014 and 2015. January and June represent the minimum and maximum export periods respectively. The model will guide TIDD in their annual timber export planning and also help avoid financial losses that could result from poor decision making and ultimately improve efficiency of their operations.